Be careful what you wish for!!

I am Wenger Out. I want him to go, despite his achievements, as he is not the quality of manager as he was 15 years ago. I respect HIM as a manager and a person, and his insight, intelligence and wisdom. I marvel at his interviews; he’s like a professor in many ways.

But then the standard comment in response to advocating his departure is “look at United post-Fergie! Be careful what you wish for! You may not like it!!”

Wenger has installed an eternal dynasty at Arsenal. This is undeniable.

However, I don’t agree with the notion that we must “look at United” to see the Arsenal world post-Arsene.

Let’s look at Manchester United in 2013, when Sir Alex retired, to see the general context of his team and their efforts since then to get back to the top:

• He got van Persie from us, whose goals won them the league with many points to spare.
• He had many aging players, and even legends such as Giggs and Scholes were still playing for him. Gary Neville had retired shortly before this.
• His younger players, such as Smalling and Rojo were still raw, but had older players and himself for guidance.
• De Gea was still fresh, though now he is truly world class.
• He was consistent until the very end, and had reached three Champions League finals in 5 years, beating Chelsea on penalties, and then losing to Messi-inspired Barca twice.
• He only lost the league to City with Aguero’s last minute goal.
• Many United fans knew that some serious rebuilding would have to take place, to get them back to the level they desire to be.
• His teams didn’t bottle it, certainly not, given their successes in his latter years there.
• He was tactically astute, and managed to change his tactics to suit all conditions.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012%E2%80%9313_Manchester_United_F.C._season#Squad_statistics

Ferdinand was still around, and it was aging team needing MUCH refinement. The link above shows this, as many of the old guard of his wonder years had the most appearances.

Lingard, evidently now an FA Cup final winner, and Welbeck (now at us of course) in addition to Smalling were young players who were not fully tested yet.

Let’s compare now to 2015/16 for Arsenal, if Wenger had stepped down at the end of the season:

• We only signed Petr Cech, which at the time was a top signing and still is, but then this was not enough for us to win the Premier League
• Our aging players literally scored in our last game vs. Aston Villa (Arteta). Or got mobbed in goal celebrations (Rosicky). They didn’t help us win anything.
• Bellerin was not raw, neither was Iwobi. Both then and now show tremendous promise.
• We didn’t really have many fresh players, inclusive of Bellerin and Iwobi, who had very little top level experience
• The team bottled it against West Brom, Norwich, Southampton, Liverpool, Manchester United, Swansea, West Ham, and Crystal Palace. Just winning half of these games would have made us champions.
• This cycle of bottling had cost us in the previous seasons, and bar two FA Cup wins, it could have been a Double in 13/14.
• Wenger has played the same tactics continuously for years, and only seldom alters it when he can.

 

So how are the two scenarios exact? United inevitably dipped due to losing Fergie’s excellence. Which club wouldn’t? He was competitive literally to the very end.

It’s understandable why people do compare, as both Wenger and Sir Alex arguably are the greatest Premier League era managers, and had contemporaneous periods of success.  But then the end of Fergie is not the same as the end of Wenger; the situations are pretty distinct.

If Wenger left, and with players like these:

ELITE/WORLD CLASS	INTERNATIONAL CLASS	GOOD	SQUAD
ALEXIS	MUSTAFI	SANTI	GABRIEL
OZIL	BELLERIN	MONREAL	ELNENY
CECH	GIROUD	OXLADE-CHAMBERLAIN	PEREZ
KOSCIELNY	IWOBI	PEREZ
	THEO	COQUELIN
	XHAKA	WILSHERE
	RAMSEY

 

This is just a selection of our players, but the central point is that some say we may finish in mid-table if Wenger leaves, due to a lack of consistency he provides.

We have truly elite players, who could get into world elevens. We have players with seasoned pedigree at international level, a Golden Boy candidate, and those who shone in the Euros.

Now, it would only take a top manager, with a proven record, to get the best of these players. Such a manager would be a really shitty manager if he couldn’t.

So if we already have quality players, a lot of money, a huge global brand, and a big stadium, why is Wenger the only manager to make us finish top four? What specific traits, that other top managers wouldn’t have, apply here? If Simeone, Ancellotti, or Loew, managed us, would they finish 6^th? And with players of our qualities?

It is true Wenger has brought us consistency. But then it’s also true that as a club we’ve had far less disruption:

• Chelsea lost Jose, and hired bad managers like AVB
• Liverpool had severe financial difficulties under Hicks and Gillett, and also bad managers (inclusive of King Kenny) and bad signings (Carroll)
• United lost Sir Alex after winning the league
• City have had good managers (inclusive of Pellegrini and Mancini) but didn’t perform to Man City’s standards or aims (,i.e. the Sheikh)
• Tottenham dipped a little once Redknapp left and AVB got sacked, but only now have continued their improvements with Pochettino.

Arsenal in contrast has been pretty stable holistically. Yes, it is possible we could make a bad managerial appointment, which could prove costly. But then in my mind the scenarios are a lot more complex than people would let on.

I’m confident that we can at least challenge post-Wenger, and our club is well-placed to do this. The crux is that our position now, or at the end of 2015/16, is not akin to United’s in 2013. United fell from the top, literally, since they lost a legendary manager and had a poor/aging/undeveloped squad. The same cannot be said of Arsenal.